From Dependence to Autonomy: Europe’s Journey to Space Sovereignty

This article is the first in a series of two, to be released over the next few days, dedicated to the Space and Satellites sector, in anticipation of the Sharing Ideas, which will be held on March 20^th at Abreu Advogados.

The Illusion of Control: The Challenge of Space Sovereignty and the Risks of Technological Dependence

In February 2025, several Google Maps users noticed a subtle change, but one with great geopolitical significance: the Gulf of Mexico, the largest gulf in the world, with a subsoil rich in petroleum, was now shown as the Gulf of America. This change of denomination was triggered by Executive Order 14172 (“Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness”), signed in January by US President Donald Trump, which proclaimed February 9^th as the “Gulf of America Day”. The change sparked international controversy but highlighted something particularly worrying – control of digital information and the ability to influence public perception continues to be determined by those who own the supporting infrastructures.

Following the difficult encounter between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28^th, in the Oval Office of the White House, in which the US were keen to underlining Ukraine’s (and the rest of the world’s) dependence on American systems, Elon Musk stated, in a post he made, on March 9^th, on the social platform X (formerly known as Twitter), that “My Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off. What I am sickened by is years of slaughter in a stalemate that Ukraine will inevitably lose”, he then proceeded to clarify that he would never turn off the terminals. In response to this post, Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, who is funding Starlink for Ukraine, warned that “if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider, we will be forced to look for other suppliers”, to which Musk replied “Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink”.

Low orbits are in fact currently occupied by megaconstellations from foreign countries – Starlink, the constellation operated by SpaceX, has more than 7,000 satellites, the US Federal Communications Commission has authorized the operation of 19,427 and SpaceX has applied for 22,488 more licenses (amounting to a possible total of around 42,000 satellites).

These episodes are just some of the many warnings that reveal the importance of Europe developing its own digital independence and space autonomy regarding external powers. Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner for Defense and Space, comments that “In times of crisis, we cannot afford to be too dependent on countries or companies outside the EU”.

“Star Wars”: The Political Side of Space Exploration, Examples of Tensions and Conflicts

Recent events show that space is not only a realm of scientific exploration and technological innovation, but also a stage for geopolitical disputes. In fact, during the Cold War, space became a “battlefield” between the US and the Soviet Union, representing an assertion of global power and supremacy. There are many examples of known political tensions around space.

When, in 1980, Arianespace came to challenge the US dominance – essentially leveraged by NASA – concerning the space launch sector, the US government imposed restrictions on American companies selling components for satellites using Ariane launch systems.

Something similar happened when the ESA (European Space Agency) initially had plans to cooperate with China in the Moon exploration but, after strong pressure from the US against this collaboration (including the threat of sanctions on Europe), China ended up forming an alliance with Russia and Europe was excluded from several projects.

Russia has also been the protagonist of several episodes of space conflicts. During the Ukraine crisis of 2014 and, more recently, with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia restricted EU access to ground stations located on Russian territory, and imposed restrictions on the use of Soyuz rockets for European missions, which forced the ESA to resort to SpaceX launches. In response, the EU prevented the installation of GLONASS stations in Europe.

There are also several known cases of Russian spoofing and jamming of navigation systems, especially in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea areas (two highly strategic zones).

Even at European level, we are not exempt from spatial tensions. After the Brexit, the EU withdrew the UK’s access to Galileo PRS (Galileo’s encrypted system), which forced the UK to rely more on the American system (GPS), losing influence in the European space sector.

References:

• Kieran Guilbert, Euronews, Google Maps will rename Gulf of Mexico as ‘Gulf of America’ in the US after Trump order (28/01/2025)
• Carolina Sobral and Tiago Caeiro, Observador, Musk ameaça desligar Starlink e fazer “colapsar” tropas ucranianas. Mas depois volta atrás (10/03/2025)
• Paula Soler, Euronews, Kubilius: Space is an EU top priority, but budget is still limited and fragmented (28/01/2025)